ARC ERM Launch Event 28th February 2019
Craske: ” I don’t think anybody at the moment is suggesting a wholesale change in the way anybody does their modelling. We are not there yet.”
Mee: “I guess this is the first stage of the research and I think you [Tunaru] propose some interesting further work“.
Kenny: ” I would say what hasn’t come out of the paper is what the difference between those two approaches [Risk Neutral and Real World] is, and that’s something the working party wants to look at, to say .. what is the difference between the two approaches, and then have that policy debate”
Craske “the paper comes out with some relatively low volatilities that we are not used to seeing, and I think there needs to be more work done around that, around the sort of, single house price, dilapidation, old people living in there. That hasn’t really been factored in at all … this paper’s really good to get this discussion out, and I do urge you all to keep an open mind when you look at it, because we don’t always – sometimes we’ve got a very narrow way of thinking, but I do think that there’s more to go, and this may go on for longer than the Brexit discussions.”
What are they telling us?