Grim reaper mathematics

The reporting of the corona virus outbreak makes almost no sense to Eumaeus – so he won’t comment.

But this site has some helpful statistics and explanations, and this paper published 7 February outlines the methodology for estimating case fatality rate, as well as (v important) the flaws inherent in the models used to estimate it.  See also this paper on a much earlier epidemic, which discusses many of the same problems.

One problem is to estimate the number of cases, particularly difficult when the disease may never show any symptoms. Dividing the number of deaths by the number of reported cases, i.e. those where the patient had symptoms, reported them and was correctly diagnosed, may grossly overestimate the fatality rate. General insurance actuaries may compare this to IBNR.

There is also the problem that if the disease is prolonged, there may be many cases where the outcome is not known, hence the correct method is to divide deaths by the number of cases reported days or weeks ago, where the ‘days or weeks’ is given by some estimate (again, another estimate) of the period from diagnosis to outcome.

[edit] See also the DXY site , a platform run by members of the Chinese medical community, aggregating media and government reports giving COVID-19 cumulative cases in near real-time.