Data so far suggests that of the 3,711 people on theĀ Diamond Princess cruise ship, 705 contracted the virus, i.e. 19%. Much higher than in any place in China, as we have stated passim, but then a cruise ship is a confined space with a lot of people in it. So far, 6 people appear to have died, which is 0.85% of those diagnosed. The mortality relative to the whole population is therefore 6 divided by 3,711, i.e. 0.16%.
These figures conflict somewhat with the crude distribution we published here, but we did say to treat all figures with caution. There is a conflict because, as is well known, mostly old people like us go on cruises, but we are seeing nothing like an 18% case fatality rate.
[EDIT] A useful paper on the Diamond Princess age distribution is here. Table copied below.
Age group | Symptomatic cases | Asymptomatic cases 1 | Total | Crude asymptomatic ratio 2 | Persons aboard3 |
0-9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100% (95%CI: 2.5%, 100%) | 16 |
10- | 1 | 1 | 2 | 50.0% (95%CI: 1.3%, 98.7%) | 23 |
20- | 18 | 2 | 20 | 10.0% (95%CI: 1.2, 31.7%) | 347 |
30- | 18 | 5 | 23 | 21.7% (95%CI: 7.5%, 43.7%) | 429 |
40- | 18 | 7 | 25 | 28.0% (95%CI: 12%, 49.4%) | 333 |
50- | 27 | 22 | 49 | 44.9% (95%CI: 30.1%, 59.8%) | 398 |
60- | 73 | 56 | 129 | 43.4% (95%CI: 2.5, 100%) | 924 |
70- | 92 | 136 | 228 | 59.6% (95%CI: 53.0%, 66.1%) | 1015 |
80- | 27 | 25 | 52 | 48.1% (95%CI: 34.0%, 62.3%) | 215 |
90- | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% (95%CI: 2.5%, 84.2%) | 11 |