The chart shows the latest data from John Hopkins. Existing cases = diagnosed cases minus recoveries minus deaths.
Existing cases have been zero for a number of days. I have been discussing with public health experts and the two arguments against the Chinese experiment, with my replies, are as follows.
(1) We can’t replicate the Chinese measures, which require an authoritarian approach. I reply: First, why can’t we implement an authoritarian approach in the West? Second, the evidence from provinces outside Hubei is that the measures were not particularly authoritarian, and relied mostly on community support.
(2) There will be a resurgence of the epidemic in China once restrictions have been lifted. I reply: this hypothesis has yet to be tested. Furthermore, it is falsified by the SARS 2002 epidemic, which was completely eradicated, also by the Spanish Flu epidemic 1917-1919. Admittedly the Spanish flu resurged in 1918, but the evidence suggests that was due to demobilisation, and in any case it disappeared the following year.
In this article, Tim Gowers (highly respected mathematician and Fields Medal winner) argues for a full lockdown.