The Liability Driven Investments Problem is Bigger than It Looks

I (Buckner) will be presenting on the subject of LDI and the ‘bigger than it looks’ problem on Nov 3, 2022 04:30 PM London, by Zoom.

If you would like to attend, please contact me here for the flyer, and the Zoom link.

“The September 28th collapse in the gilts market led the Bank of England to announce a £65bn programme to stabilise long-term interest rates and save UK pension schemes from defaulting on their Liability Driven Investment (LDI) positions by the end of that day. Schemes had experienced liquidity problems on their Interest Rate Swap positions, losses on which had triggered margin calls requiring them to sell assets.

“The affair has highlighted the danger of hedging illiquid positions with liquid ones. I shall argue, based on a model of the underlying interest rate transformation involved in LDI, that there is more to the issue than has yet been appreciated.”

 

 

An Apology to Our Readers

We have had a long interruption to our postings since our last posting of December 17th. We are very sorry about this, not least because it wasn’t planned. Work simply built up, then Dean went off to Antarctica to hunt photo penquins and play with his sextant perform valuable scientific work and we have been bogged down with research ever since.

Looking ahead, we have some postings to put out shortly, and we have some news on the research front, as various papers come out as working papers or published in journals. More to follow and thank you for bearing with us.

LSE details

Update. Our seminar “NNEG and ERM Valuation: A Restatement of the Case for Market Consistency”, will take place from 17:00 to 18.30, Monday 10 June 2019, in the Lecture Theatre of CCLS Queen Mary University of London (67-69 Lincoln’s Inn Fields, London WC2A 3JB).

Charles Goodhart will be chairing.

External visitors can report to the reception.

Sorry for the slight change of time.

DB

LSE redux

Following our presentation (‘Is Equity Release a Second Equitable Life?’)  at the London School of Economics on Monday 1 October 2018, Kevin and I will be presenting further work on the topic of equity release at the LSE on Monday June 10 2019, 17:30-19:00.

We will be focusing on our work since October, and on external developments. Subjects will include: calibration of key variables, particularly deferment rate and volatility; market consistency; regulation.

Precise venue tbc – we will publish details when available on the website.

Dean ‘n’ Kevin

Equity Release Mortgages: the Irish Experience

Presenters: Andrew Smith and Tony Jeffery

Event Type: CPD Event
Date:
Time: Tea/Coffee Reception: 6.00pm – 6.30pm

Meeting: 6.30pm – 8.00pm

Venue: Chartered Accountants House, 47-49 Pearse Street, Dublin 2
Description:
Equity release mortgages (ERMs), also called lifetime mortgages, have played an increasing role in generating income for retired home-owners. As new liquidity rules have reduced the supply of bank lending, so insurers have stepped in, encouraged by generous regulatory treatment for annuity writers. Some methods for valuing ERMs have proved controversial, particularly in relation to assumptions for future growth in house prices which determine whether the lender is able to recover the mortgage balance on the borrower’s death. As the volume of these assets grows on insurance balance sheets, there are concerns that insurers’ reliance on continued house price growth could make the industry less resilient to the next house market downturn.

 

This paper describes the basic products and illustrates alternative valuation methods with reference to Ireland and the UK. We summarise recent research and provide example calculations to illustrate the competing methods, highlighting areas of actuarial debate. We conclude with a discussion of the value of these products – both positive and negative – to society as a whole.

Dates for diary

1.  As advertised earlier, I will be presenting ‘The Valuation of Equity Release Mortgages’, to the Network of Consulting Actuaries. All welcome.

2. On Friday 8 February I will be presenting ‘Routing around malfunction: can the financial system ever be open?’ Booking form here.

Jimmy Wales (founder of Wikipedia and campaigner for an open knowledge society) once claimed that “The internet interprets any type of centralized planning as a malfunction and routes around it. The command-and-control model is doomed to failure here by the very nature of the network. This is inevitable”. Many of the pioneers of open data, such as Tim Berners-Lee and Richard Stallman, have shared this vision.

Yet the world of finance is still predicated on the command-and-control model. A small number of giant banks control the market in commercial and retail lending, the insurance world is dominated by a handful of large players, who alone have access to the corridors of central banks and regulators.

Dean Buckner, a retired specialist at the Bank of England, explains how the secretive nature of regulation threatens, rather than supports, the stability of the financial system.

3. I will be speaking at the InsuranceERM conference on 27 February. Details here.

Elephant in the room: IFRS 17 and the matching adjustment

Solvency II was originally a market consistent regime for the regulatory balance sheet, and much of its original wording followed IFRS standards. This was since watered down by an addendum to Article 77 of the Solvency II directive, known as ‘Matching Adjustment’. IFRS 17 has a similar provision to Article 77, but has much stronger standards on market consistency. Will this lead to a divergence between regulatory and statutory balance sheets? Could there be a serious impact on UK insurers? The presentation will cover

  • History of Solvency II and Matching Adjustment
  • Corresponding provisions in IFRS 17
  • Potential divergence of regulatory and statutory reporting
  • Scenarios for reported solvency of UK insurers

For your diary

The Institute has turned down our request to speak on the subject of equity release mortgage valuation. However I will be speaking in January on the same subject at the network of consulting actuaries. See below.

Date: Fri 25th January 2019, 12:00 pm

‘The Valuation of Equity Release Mortgages’, Dean Buckner (The Eumaeus Project)

Anyone can join and dial into the network’s events for free, if they are interested. Their membership is mostly qualified actuaries as they get 1 hour of CPD. To register, follow the link below.

Network of Consulting Actuaries