The chart above is constructed using data from the new government downloadable database https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk , showing cases versus admissions versus deaths in England, all on a daily basis.
From the data alone it is clear that cases are rising to levels last seen in March.
The Government 1 is making a big deal of this, proposing a possible second lockdown. However, and the Government has not made such a big thing here, is that whereas in March there were nearly as many admissions as cases, the ratio is nothing like that now. Moreover deaths, while a big thing in March, are a now fraction of both cases and admissions.
One possible interpretation is that cases in March were mostly detected by admissions. Now, not so. Indeed I blogged way back in March, using cruise ship data, that the case (i.e. confirmed case) fatality ratio seemed to grossly exaggerate the infection fatality ratio. There is a selection bias: if cases are only identified by the cases that end up in admission to hospital, then the condition is already serious and a relatively high percentage of cases will die. Note also, based on the new data, that deaths are now a lower percentage of admissions, possibly because we are getting better at intervention, i.e. successfully treating it.
In March we had no testing regime (and still don’t have much of one). Now that we are capturing (through tests) some of the infections which are either asymptomatic or which are too mild to warrant admission, it is clear that cases will rise. Does that justify a second lockdown, and all the painful things that would cause?
I doubt it.
- Not forgetting the University of Birmingham Vice Chancellor, highlights are 1:32–2:09 and 4:57–6:37